Probability Calculator

Calculate probability of profit and ITM/OTM scenarios

Probability Parameters

Probability Analysis

0.00%
Probability
0.00%
Complement Probability
$0.00
Expected Move (1σ)
0.00%
Required Price Change

Probability Distribution

Understanding Probabilities

Normal Distribution

Stock prices are assumed to follow a lognormal distribution. This calculator uses the Black-Scholes framework to estimate probabilities.

Standard Deviations

  • 1σ: ~68% probability range
  • 2σ: ~95% probability range
  • 3σ: ~99.7% probability range

Trading Applications

Use probabilities to assess option strategies, set realistic profit targets, and understand the likelihood of various price scenarios.